Will more than 630 people have gone to space by the end of 2022?
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301Ṁ1967resolved Jan 1
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This question resolves to "YES" if 630 people have gone to space by the end of 2022, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travellers_by_first_flight. "NO" otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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October update: We still need 7. Only remaining possible sources are the Chinese flight which is very likely but will only contribute like 1 person, and New Shepard Flights if they happen. New Shepard had an anomaly in September where the capsule aborted safely but the booster was destroyed. I can't find any information about plans for further flights, so I assume they're not happening soon. I am switching to a NO.
There are currently 615 on that wikipedia page. Looks like about 4 new people between the two ISS crew flights in September, maybe some on the chinese crew flight scheduled for december if that doesn't slip, 3 on Polaris Dawn if that doesn't slip.
But New Shepard flights are going to be the biggest source - this is basically a market on how many times New Shepard launches. Only one New Shepard launch in the rest of the year would make the math very unfavorable and require all other unknowns to be resolve perfectly, two New Shepard launches would get us there assuming full crews that don't have lots of repeat flyers, and with three it would almost certainly resolve YES.
Blue Origin did 2 launches in H1 2022, so I think it's more likely than not that they do at least that many in H2 2022.
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