This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 mandating information security protections (including cyber, physical, and personnel security) for frontier AI models. These security measures should be in place during model training to limit unintended proliferation of dangerous models. Frontier AI models are those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).

Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.