Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)
18
Ṁ1kṀ1.7k
resolved Feb 20
Resolved
NO
Market context
AI
Metaculus
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ491
2Ṁ7
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 YES

I would be shocked if there are no ITAR-restricted trained AI models in existence today. ITAR restrictions go down to, like, the part numbers of jet engine parts. Does this market require that the restriction be on ALL trained models? or would restrictions on a single model count?

@Adam (this question is tough because if it's "all models" then this market should be at 0% because nobody's gonna restrict LeNet; if it's "any model" then again I think this should probably already be resolved yes)

@Adam Remember that ITAR specifically does not require designation; many documents are "born restricted" from an ITAR perspective.

People are also trading

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?
21% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
77% chance
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
13% chance
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
26% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
44% chance
Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline DALL-E models by the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028
43% chance
By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?
20% chance
Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
88% chance
Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027
80% chance