Will the Republican nominee or Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Basic
13
Ṁ279
2029
56%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

Intuitively higher than 64%. Per the other Manifold query, chances that a woman wins the 2028 Dem nomination is over 60% (makes sense, since Harris probably has a >80% chance of winning the nomination if she wins this presidential election, which Manifold thinks is ~50%, as long as she chooses to run for reelection). Surely the chance the Republican nominee is a woman is high enough that the union is more than 64%.

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