https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-democratic-nominee-for-202 This seems to me like an inconsistency.

Will the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?

74% chance.

Intuitively higher than 64%. Per the other Manifold query, chances that a woman wins the 2028 Dem nomination is over 60% (makes sense, since Harris probably has a >80% chance of winning the nomination if she wins this presidential election, which Manifold thinks is ~50%, as long as she chooses to run for reelection). Surely the chance the Republican nominee is a woman is high enough that the union is more than 64%.