I've listed below 7 markets that some people believe to have a less than 0.1% chance of resolving as Yes. However, due to No buyers not having sufficient capital or return incentive, their prices are hovering around 1-5%, never dropping to the less than 0.1% (what I would expect if the market prices were accurate.)

The alternative hypothesis is that the current prices for all these markets are correct. Assuming all of them are independent events, the aggregated probability for any of them resolving as Yes should be around 22% (3% + 5% + 3% + 4% + 1% + 3% + 3% = 22%).

This market serves as a test to determine whether the probabilities of all the listed markets are accurate.

The list of 7 markets:

The list of 7 markets' link:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/is-this-new-proof-that-p-np-valid

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm

https://manifold.markets/Mosiah/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us

https://manifold.markets/Jenny/this-market-resolves-no

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/has-taj-quantum-invented-a-roomtemp