Thank you to the mods for resolving, I simply forgot

Resolves no

Yao Yao hasn't stopped research and is continuing to post papers. The latest is https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11854.

Feeling pretty good about this one

https://x.com/gimjiun79102152/status/1764691402733281747?s=20

https://x.com/finallyRoo/status/1764679876596904184?s=20

I WANT TO BELIEVE

According to Yao Yao, 国内某top2大学的一个课题组, 配方复现出来了. If published, it should resolve this market YES. (Yao Yao is an author of the paper in question of this market.)

@MilfordHammerschmidt If Seo is right about RTSC he will be by far the wealthiest Manifold user, and Chris will be destitute.

@jim That's just a truism about long shots vs sure things. "If I'm right I'll be very rich" - very easy to make bets for which that is true, that's how market pricing works. Most who do it don't get rich though.

@chrisjbillington OK, but it's also a truism that "true believers" will look stupid until proved right.

@jim That's not true. He'd have 330k mana. Several manifold users have more than that.

@MilfordHammerschmidt That's just this market, he has far more in the main LK-99 market.

@Joshua and a lot of people would lose a lot of mana

@SanghyeonSeo

@chrisjbillington Refused. I have been able to buy at 5% comfortably.

@SanghyeonSeo I've been your main counterparty and I'm going to stop buying NO at 5% for now.

Polymarket still trading close to 10%, probably because of the time value of money

Here is the report from the Sukbae Lee (L in LK99 presentation).

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/korean-lk99-variant-superconductor-partial-update-highlights.html

The class of room temperature and room pressure superconductors is real.

He and other researchers have formed a corporation and the success of the company and its patents is the priority.

IBM is the first company to start discussions.

Sukbae Lee believes the China groups have successfully reproduced the sample.

They have a video detecting zero resistance.

Sukbae Lee and his team are confident

APL materials review process : Ongoing

Patent registration: Ongoing

Why no samples and data? -> We are a corporation. Patent.

We are going to be proved by other researchers

There are still instabilities and other issues to be worked through.

There are currently limitations around a narrow range of magnetic fields.

Real money markets are biased away from 0% and 100% because of the opportunity cost of the invested capital on the side that has to bet a lot to win a little.. Manifold’s loan system probably makes it more accurate than real money on such questions.

@JonathanRay If the prediction market currency was redeemable for fractional shares of an equity index fund, that’d solve most/all of the long odds bias problem. But regulatory barriers.

@JonathanRay I didn't even read the question and bought no. I'm doing my part!

@f I'm 8000 mana deep, and I don't have the slightest clue what a Meissner is, or what an apatite is. I know what copper and temperature mean though

@Tumbles lol nice. Everyone likes to bet on an underdogg... too much. It's my whole strategy and I've been doing pretty well. I've thought about taking it to sports betting but I figure the fees would probably eat any profits