How many years of sentence will SBF get?
How many years of sentence will SBF get?
20
450Ṁ1088resolved Mar 31
Resolved as
25%1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution to x% if SBF received a sentence of x years
e.g.
resolution to 0% if SBF received no jail time
resolution to 20% if SBF are sentenced for 20 years
resolution to 100% if SBF are sentenced for 100 years or longer
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@MartinRandall Resolving this now, and would try to UNRESOLVE it if the sentencing changed later
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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