Will >10% of raspberries be picked by robots before end of 2030?
Will >10% of raspberries be picked by robots before end of 2030?
7
1kṀ1922031
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve YES if, before end of 2030 over 10% of raspberries picked in the world are harvested mechanically. Else NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ30 NO2mo
I think there's going to be robots for this, but the margins are quite small. The demand for robots in higher margin work will be really dominant in 2030.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
58% chance
Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?
18% chance
Will we see autonomous humanoid farmer robots by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will 10% of individuals rely on AI for their clothing choices by 2026?
8% chance
Will Amazon have more robots than FTE humans before 2026?
68% chance
Will robotics be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
87% chance
Will there be more robots than humans by 2100?
81% chance
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
32% chance
Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?
49% chance
Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?
61% chance