Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that 100 million quadruped robots have been manufactured by January 1st 2034.

This refers to cumulative global manufacturing of quadruped robots up to that date, not the number still operating, sold in 2033 alone, deployed commercially, or registered with any authority.

For this market, “quadruped robots” means four-legged robots intended for industrial, research, professional, inspection, security, defense, logistics, entertainment, education, or consumer use. Units count even if they are later destroyed, retired, exported, warehoused, resold, or never deployed.

A unit counts once it has been manufactured as a substantially complete quadruped robot. It does not need to have been sold, delivered, installed, or actively used. Preorders, reservations, announced production capacity, components, kits, or unfinished units do not count unless credible sources treat them as completed robot units.

This market excludes humanoid robots, drones, wheeled robots, robotic arms, exoskeletons, prosthetics, and toys that are not generally counted by credible industry sources as quadruped robots. If a source includes toy-like quadrupeds in a broader category, those units should only count if the source clearly treats them as quadruped robots rather than ordinary toys.

“Strong evidence” may include official statistics, audited company disclosures, IPO/prospectus filings, credible market-research reports, manufacturer production or shipment disclosures, procurement records, or well-sourced reporting from reputable outlets. Because no single global registry is likely to exist, this market may resolve YES based on a credible synthesis of multiple sources across major manufacturers and countries. A single uncited claim, company target, or extrapolation should not be sufficient by itself.

If credible evidence published after January 1st 2034 shows that the 100 million threshold had already been reached before the deadline, this resolves YES. If the best available evidence does not support cumulative global production of at least 100 million quadruped robots by January 1st 2034, this resolves NO.

Background: The Epoch AI notes estimate 81,250 quadruped robots produced in 2025, and the quadruped projection graph I will attach projects ~23.9 million cumulative quadruped robots by 2031, using a 2022–2025 trend of 13.74x per 36 months, or roughly a 10-month doubling time. Extending that same trend reaches 100 million around late 2033, but this market should resolve based on later evidence, not the extrapolation alone.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dWwBaP7karJq0gU-e_XtCCqiVExLTKVJEafi4w2Nl5M/edit?tab=t.0

https://epoch.ai/blog/how-fast-could-robot-production-scale-up