Will China have a female leader before 2060?
Plus
17
แน9352059
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If the head of state and the de facto leader are two different people, as they sometimes have been before 1993, this question refers to the de facto leader (i.e., the most powerful person in the political system). If it is unclear or difficult to determine who that person is, this resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Given that Xi seems to have turned the position into basically a lifetime appointment, likely he'll be sticking around for another 15yr or so, bringing us to 2040.
If his successor continues in that vein, they only need to hold out for another 20 years after that get into office, which seems quite doable.
Almost certainly that next appointee won't be a woman, implying that the probability on this market should be much lower.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the United States have a female president by May 2029?
55% chance
Will there be a female president of the United States before China and Taiwan go to war?
66% chance
Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?
36% chance
Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?
64% chance
Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?
52% chance
Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040?
77% chance
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2030?
67% chance
Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?
62% chance
Will the United States elect a woman president by 2030?
65% chance
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before 2030?
44% chance