When will the next Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?
When will the next Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?
2
320Ṁ1192048
33%
2027
17%
2032
17%
2037
17%
2042
17%
2047
Recent politburos have always included at least one woman. The 20th Politburo, chosen in 2022, is the first in decades that does not.
The 20th Politburo was also the first in decades to be headed by the same General Secretary who had headed the previous two, Xi Jinping. It is likely but unknown whether he will still be General Secretary in '27 and '32 (and beyond)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/23/world/asia/women-china-party-congress.html
This market will resolve NA if there has not been another female politburo member by 2048
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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