Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029. A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition. Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties. The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline. If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.

Background

The CCP has ruled without interruption since winning a civil war against the Nationalist Party in 1949. Xi has steadily increased his personal power and authority within the party since 2012, notably by purging rivals and challengers as part of an anticorruption campaign. Since becoming General Secretary in 2012, Xi Jinping has increasingly relied on repression to manage discontent, doubling down on censorship, control and surveillance. In 2018, the National People's Congress voted to remove term limits on the Chinese presidency, paving the way for Xi to become president for life.

Considerations

Both Taiwan's ruling party and the opposition tend to treat democracy in China as a distant ideal rather than a near-term political solution. Even modernization theory buffs forecast at best a moderation of authoritarianism in the near term, because China lacks the basic elements of opposition forces like those that stepped in when Taiwan and South Korea democratized. There is little reason to believe that even the most liberally minded Chinese leaders, when advocating for more "democracy", envisage anything resembling multi-party electoral democracy. The CCP has long sought to appropriate and redefine the term "democracy" to be compatible with its Leninist political system.