So interesting question about Bardella here, who would could be indicted for his role in the same embezzlement scheme as Le Pen.

If someone is disqualified in a non-definitive manner, i.e. they can still appeal, does it resolve yes for that country?

@RaphaelBon It counts as soon as the ruling becomes binding, regardless of the possibility of an appeal or whether it is later stayed.

@skibidist Thanks but I’m not sure I understand: if say Jordan Bardella ever receives a ruling making him in principle ineligible to run, then it resolves yes for France, even if he can appeal? I’m not sure of what you mean by “a ruling becomes binding” — in principle a ruling isn’t binding if one can appeal and if that appeal makes it so that the ruling isn’t immediately applicable.

@RaphaelBon
if they can still run while the appeal is pending: market does not resolve
if they are barred unless the appeal resolves in their favor: market does resolve

@skibidist Thanks!!

Rules need a start date. Two years later someone might look at this market and have no recollection of the France and Romanian exclusions.