Which EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?
10
175Ṁ102Dec 31
6%
Poland
23%
Germany
3%
Austria
7%
France (again)
7%
Romania (again)
19%
Finland
34%
After France and Romania, i.e. after Apr 1, 2025
Previous edition:
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A disqualification counts as soon as the ruling becomes binding. This is regardless of:
The possibility of an appeal.
Whether the ruling is later stayed.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding appealed rulings:
If the individual/party can still run while an appeal is pending, the market does not resolve.
If the individual/party is barred from running unless the appeal resolves in their favor, the market does resolve.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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