A multipolar AGI scenario is safer than a singleton AGI scenario
5
Ṁ130Ṁ48Nov 23
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?
25% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
20% chance
How many parameters will the first AGI* have?
Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?
11% chance
Will unsuccessfully aligned AGI kill us all?
32% chance
Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?
23% chance
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
11% chance
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
Conditional on safe AGI being developed, will there be significant mathematical results proving its safety properties?
24% chance