Will unsuccessfully aligned AGI kill us all?

1kṀ1508

2099

32%

chance

ALL

probably is not gonna resolve ever. i just wanna know what people here think about it

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bought Ṁ30 NO

Nah

Does this resolve YES in 2100 if we're still alive? Or when it becomes clear that we're not going to be killed by AGI? Or something else?

predictedYES

@tom I said in the description that I have no intention of resolving it

predictedNO

@toms Apart from the "probably is not gonna resolve ever," surviving would make this resolve NO, not YES.

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Will we get AGI before 2030?

59% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

45% chance

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

25% chance

Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?

11% chance

If AGI causes human extinction before 2100, which type of misalignment will be the biggest cause?

Will AGI cause the collapse of civilization before the end of 2025? 📎

1% chance

Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?

Will AGI kill at least 1 person before the end of the Trump administration?

13% chance

Will AGI retaliate on AI doomers in a way that makes AI doomers regret it?

3% chance

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