Russia and Armenia are in the military alliance - ODKB/CSTO ( Collective Security Threat Organisation).

But they have political tensions.

Currently there are 2000 Russians troops and military base in Armenia.

Criteria for YES:

1) WAR with Azerbaijan is started

2) Russia provides massive help in additional to the existing military base and peacekeepers:

At least 2000 troops will be added and at least aviation support will be provided to Armenia.

Criteria for NO

1) By 2024 year, situation is normalized without war.

Or

2) war is started but Russian help is not sufficient or absent.