When will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war?
21
6.3k
2028
0.3%
September 2023
0.5%
October 2023
1.3%
November–December 2023
5%
January–June 2024
7%
July–December 2024
11%
2025
12%
2026
63%
Not before 2027

Resolves to the earliest date when EITHER Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire outside of the Nagorno-Karabakh region for a continuous period of two weeks or more, OR if military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan outside of Nagorno-Karabakh result in 100 or more cumulative casualties.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

@JuJumper: can you please resolve to "No" those in 2023?

@adssx it seems I can't do that for this market type.

@JuJumper OK, thanks for trying!

By the way, a peace treaty this year seems more and more likely: https://twitter.com/KonulikShahin/status/1787797073414312391

@JuJumper Extend please

@Shump extended

Is there any reason for predicting 5% probability in 2026 and 15% in 2025? Elections?

@mariopasquato

seems to be mispriced due to low number of traders, you are welcome to fix that :)

@JuJumper fixed

Armenia basically lost the conflict with barely any fighting. I don't think there's going to be war any time soon

Europe needs that gas - won't step in.

In the midst of hundreds of Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan's defence ministry said that an Armenian army sniper killed one if its servicemen in Kalbajar, and its forces were taking "retaliatory measures".

Armenia immediately denied the accusation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66969845.amp

More related questions