China and the US just agreed to a trade deal. Trump said it could be renegotiated every 12 months. Is it gonna hold this long?
This resolves YES if either country imposes tariffs or export bans that are meant to hurt the other country. The types of tariffs we have seen throughout the second Trump administration, Biden's CHIP act and China's restriction on rare earths would all count.
What would not count are trade barriers that are not specific to the other country or are clearly driven by other concerns. Am example would be a Chinese export ban on rice after a bad harvest.
Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For ambiguous cases where an export ban or tariff may have a made-up excuse vs. genuine justification:
The creator will use their judgment to determine if the measure was truly meant to hurt the other country
The creator will consider whether the other country retaliates, as retaliation would indicate the measure was perceived as targeting them
The creator will abstain from trading to remain impartial
1,000@BlitzEver let's see if I fall for the excuse or not. Normally I'd say that the other country's reaction should play a role as well, but I don't think that's a good indicator here. I'll abstain from participating in the market to be impartial. The good thing is that the other country will likely retaliate if it's a BS excuse and that should be more clear.