Will OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or xAI launch a S0TA frontier model before US Election Day (November 5, 2024)? | Manifold

Will OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or xAI launch a S0TA frontier model before US Election Day (November 5, 2024)?

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11

Ṁ671

resolved Oct 2

Resolved

YES

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bought Ṁ50 YES

o1 seems to advance SOTA quite a bit

sold Ṁ5 NO

cryptic tweet about Gemini

https://x.com/_sholtodouglas/status/1831878523705028985

0.85×0.9×0.75×0.9 gives roughly 50%

OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic, Deepmind

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