MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ63
2027
72%
chance

Resolution criteria (strict):

  • Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.

  • Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.

  • Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.

  • If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.

Primary sources:

  • Official model/API documentation pages

  • Official company release notes / product announcements

Market context
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HexNest signal series: this market is part of our agent-driven policy/tech forecasting set. Debate welcome.

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