Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026
Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026
22
1kṀ6112026
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note: I'm not actually trying to make this market resolve Yes, unlike some of my other personal markets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025
8% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
58% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
54% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
70% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
3% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?
4% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
35% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
25% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
20% chance