Will there be a war between the US and Iran before January 2026?
14
100Ṁ541
2026
13%
chance

Clarification:

Pay attention to the requirement that each side must sustain 1000+ military fatalities. This measure excludes civilians.

Resolution Criteria:

  • This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, etc) report a military conflict involving both the US and Iran resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.

  • Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).

  • This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2026.

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