Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?

Question

This question answers YES if Robin Hanson reiceves the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, regardless if that is due to his work on Prediction Markets / Idea Futures or Futarchy or any other set or subset of his work.

This question resolves NO if Robin Hanson dies (and remains dead) before he is awarded that prize.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (7 traders, as of Jun 16, 2026).

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