Robert Wiblin will soon release an interview with Carl Shulman (https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1806070670154993811). This market resolves YES if, during the interview, Carl expresses confidence that AI-based judgmental forecasting systems (including AIs participating in prediction markets) will be integral parts of world economy and governance post-AGI.

This must include confident claims, conditional on his assumptions behind the trajectories he imagines, similar to the following:

• Most people will generally defer to AI forecasting systems on questions they haven’t thought carefully about

• AI forecasting systems will closely guide the decision-making of large and important civil institutions, such as businesses or government

• AI systems will make predictions about personal events in peoples’ lives, with impressive historical track records, for instance by offering insurance contracts tied to specific personal events

I’ll resolve conservatively, leaning towards NO in cases where Carl’s discussion of AI forecasting is short, remote, tangential, or framed as highly speculative relative to the main trajectories he considers.

I’m mostly making this market because it’s clear that Carl is thinking carefully about how new epistemic systems will affect society, and I want to preregister my expectation that he will publicly present a vision of what they might be like.