Resolves as a fraction to r/120, where r is the highest raw score achieved by an AI on the 2024 Putnam Exam, as reported by credible AI labs (models/details not necessary). The score must have been achieved and reported before Dec 31. It goes without saying that the model shouldn’t have been trained on the questions themselves.
I will count scores obtained by running the AI for longer than the human test conditions, such as in cases similar to AlphaProof.
1,000People are also trading
This tweet claims o1 pro got a raw score of at least 80
@AdamK Buzzard gives it about a ceiling of 32 here: https://xenaproject.wordpress.com/2024/12/22/can-ai-do-maths-yet-thoughts-from-a-mathematician/
I see two estimates on Twitter so far for o1: scores of 40 and 60. Clearly this market is not going to be decision-relevant to anyone in time for the answer to be well-known, despite how surprised the market would have been with such high scores had it been up for longer with larger subsidies. At this point it's a statement about the inefficiency of Manifold. IMO 2025 market trading has a >100K mana subsidy pool for NO, and yet no one is paying attention to how the AIs are doing on the Putnam. No one else thought to write this question...Mind-boggling.