This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
Hi, all. Not sure what news moved this market on July 5, but just want to remind holders that this market will be resolved by a panel of offline (not on Manifold) judges, so if you have in mind a specific definition of a word like "illegal," you may end up with a different answer vs. how these judges interpret the word "illegal." Just don't want people to be surprised here.