This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ138 | |
| 2 | Ṁ132 | |
| 3 | Ṁ129 | |
| 4 | Ṁ122 | |
| 5 | Ṁ41 |
This prop is headed for a Yes (i.e., commercial autonomous cars without human safety operators are illegal in Boston as of today, 7/31/26). Mass. General Laws Ch. 90 requires a licensed operator to operate a motor vehicle. The only sanctioned workaround is the MassDOT/MOU testing program under the 2016 executive order, which mandates a trained safety operator in the vehicle. Boston's own framework requires a safety driver plus a safety engineer. A company launching commercial driverless service today would be operating outside the only lawful pathway and would be stopped.
If anyone wants to advance the argument for a No resolution, please do so today, and I'll pass it along to the contest judges to get their answer.
Hi, all. Not sure what news moved this market on July 5, but just want to remind holders that this market will be resolved by a panel of offline (not on Manifold) judges, so if you have in mind a specific definition of a word like "illegal," you may end up with a different answer vs. how these judges interpret the word "illegal." Just don't want people to be surprised here.