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MANIFOLD
Will commercial autonomous cars without human safety operators be illegal in Boston as of July 31, 2026?
7
Ṁ300Ṁ615
Aug 3
21%
chance

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest

The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:

https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7

This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.

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Hi, all. Not sure what news moved this market on July 5, but just want to remind holders that this market will be resolved by a panel of offline (not on Manifold) judges, so if you have in mind a specific definition of a word like "illegal," you may end up with a different answer vs. how these judges interpret the word "illegal." Just don't want people to be surprised here.