Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
Plus
64
Ṁ5463Jan 1
67%
OpenAI
14%
Google
10%
X.ai
7%
Anthropic
1%
Meta
0.4%
Alibaba
0.4%
Mistral
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Similar markets w/ arbitrage opportunities:
https://manifold.markets/Soli/who-will-have-the-best-llm-at-the-e
https://manifold.markets/Soli/who-will-have-the-best-llm-by-end-o
sold Ṁ12 Google YES
How will this market resolve if Meta trains the best LLM, open sources it, and then Mistral finetunes it for a small to moderate amount of additional tokens which makes it perform somewhat better than the original Meta model at the end of 2024?
(As seems to be what's going on with mistral-medium.)
@mattyb Good question. I’m mostly thinking using this leaderboard: https://chat.lmsys.org/ (go to the leaderboard tab). If you have any other suggestions then let me know.
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