As with my other related questions, by default will judge based on the leaderboard here, based on Elo: 

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

Chatbot Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by lmsys

Discover amazing ML apps made by the community

If Google deplolys a new model in 2024 that might or might not qualify, but it is not yet ranked on the leaderboard at year's end due to time required for evaluation, I will hold off on resolving until that has happened until a maximum of February 1, 2025.

If Google releases a model that the public, or least those who have signed up for its early testing programs, cannot access by the deadline, that does not count - I will use my ability to access it absent any special treatment as a proxy here, or if I get special treatment I will ask others.

As with other questions, I reserve the right to correct what I see as an egregious error in either direction, either by twitter poll or outright fiat, including if the model is effectively available but does not appear on the leaderboard for logistical reasons.

(This is the EOY '24 version of the market here: 

https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-google-have-the-best-llm-by-eo

Clarification (in response to Daniel): This resolves on the spot if Google has the best model - it's 'by EOY' not 'at EOY.'