Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 am on November 5.
The most confident forecast will be the one that has the highest odds of the winning candidate winning. If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the forecast that had the greatest chance of that happening will resolve to "YES". In the case of a tie, the win will be split among the correct answers.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
1,000
3.00@LasseRunst Other is just the placeholder for other answers that might be added to this market later. For example, if Kalshi opens a market their odds might get added and anyone who bet "YES" on "other" would also automatically get an equivalent number of "YES" shares in the new market that was added. Anyone can add a new forecast, however, forecasts that are not in keeping with the spirit of this market are subject to disqualification by me.
@traders Please take note: If a forecast shows its predictions with decimals the full number including the decimal will be used. While 538 does not show its win probability prediction in decimals it does offer odds from 1000 simulations at the top of their page. Accordingly, 538's forcast will be taken from the odds from 1000 simulations because it is a more precise prediction.
@traders Kalshi Electoral College forecast will not be added as an option as it does not show a confidence level.
@traders Please take note: At 7:30 pm EDT today a new answer option will open entitled "Kalshi Forcast". This will be the forecast found at this link. Due to the continuing legal battles regarding whether Kalshi is allowed to operate an exchange based on elections, there is a possibility that the linked market will be shut down before Election Day. Should that happen, the last forecast before the market was shut down will be used.
@traders As Manifold has again changed their flagship forecast for the election to the candidate-based forecast, at 9:00 am EDT tomorrow the forecasts titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)" and "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" will be changed to be titled "Manifold Flagship Election Odds (sweepcash)" and "Manifold Flagship Election Odds (Mana)". These forecasts will be the ones that are highlighted at the top of the page at https://manifold.markets/election.
@traders For your information, tonight at 9:30 pm EDT the answer currently labeled "Manifold Overall Party Odds" will be renamed to "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" and an additional answer will be added titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)". The market named "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" will be the one that uses mana for trades and the one titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)" will be the one that uses sweepcash for trades. As there have yet to be markets for individual state electoral college votes using sweepcash, I will not be adding a sweepcash version of the "Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast". If that changes you will receive 12-hours notice.
@traders PLEASE TAKE NOTICE:
At Noon EDT tomorrow the market currently labeled "Manifold Overall Candidate Odds" will be renamed "Manifold Overall Party Odds" as the party odds are Manifold's flagship odds forecast not candidate odds
Election Betting Odds will be added at noon EDT tomorrow
Should Kalshi launch a market forecasting the winner of the presidency that will be added after I give 12 hours' notice
As is my practice in my markets, 12 hours notice will be given to allow traders to prepare before any major changes are made unless there is a manifest necessity to make them sooner
@LasseRunst Other is just the placeholder for other answers that might be added to this market later. For example, if Kalshi opens a market their odds might get added and anyone who bet "YES" on "other" would also automatically get an equivalent number of "YES" shares in the new market that was added. Anyone can add a new forecast, however, forecasts that are not in keeping with the spirit of this market are subject to disqualification by me.