
Which of the following forecasts will most confidently predict the winner of the 2024 election?
9
1.3kṀ454resolved Nov 6
100%13%
Polymarket Overall Candidate Odds
7%
Manifold Flagship Election Odds (Mana)
9%
Metaculus Overall Candidate Odds
10%
PredictIt Overall Candidate Odds
6%
538 Forecast
7%
Nate Silver Forecast
6%
JHK Overall Candidate Odds
16%
Election Betting Odds
9%
Manifold Flagship Election Odds (sweepcash)
9%
Kalshi Forcast
9%Other
Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 am on November 5.
The most confident forecast will be the one that has the highest odds of the winning candidate winning. If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the forecast that had the greatest chance of that happening will resolve to "YES". In the case of a tie, the win will be split among the correct answers.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ243 | |
2 | Ṁ8 | |
3 | Ṁ0 |