This market will resolve to the first day that the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The status for a day is based on the notices checked at 8:30 AM ET each day.
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
1,000Can you redo the buckets to make it easier to arbitrage? If you can use the same date thresholds as one of these, it would be convenient.
Alternatively, we can all just start betting on the individual days it might end.
Here are some existing markets:
https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/how-long-will-the-government-shutdo
https://manifold.markets/cash/when-will-the-oct-2025-us-governmen
https://manifold.markets/Mana/during-which-month-will-the-governm