This market will resolve to the first day that the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The status for a day is based on the notices checked at 8:30 AM ET each day.
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
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It's 8:30am ET on Nov 12th, OPM website (in rules) still has the same shutdown notification; so the nov 6-12 block is a "no" now, right? Unless there's some big dispute?
Oh hey, opportunity! I spent all my measly 150M balance on it.
House is meeting to vote on the senate bill at the earliest tomorrow (the 12th). https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/11/when-house-vote-reopen-government-shutdown/87208910007/
The rules say this market is checked 8:30am (and the next house meeting is scheduled 12pm)
So it's impossible for the shutdown to end according to these rules by the 12th :P
Can you redo the buckets to make it easier to arbitrage? If you can use the same date thresholds as one of these, it would be convenient.
Alternatively, we can all just start betting on the individual days it might end.
Here are some existing markets:
https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/how-long-will-the-government-shutdo
https://manifold.markets/cash/when-will-the-oct-2025-us-governmen
https://manifold.markets/Mana/during-which-month-will-the-governm
@DannyqnOht Hey, I thought that I had responded to this, but as it turns out, I had just written out my response in my notes app and had never pasted it in as a response to your comment. Here it is:
The reason that the ranges contain uneven numbers of days is that I tried to create ranges that keep the market engaging throughout the duration of time that the market describes, meaning that date ranges near the beginning of the market are shorter, as are date ranges near important deadlines for the budget.
Please let me know if you have any questions