Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the single duration bucket that matches the length of the U.S. federal “lapse in appropriations” (government shutdown) that begins in FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026). Exactly one option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
Start: 12:00AM ET October 1
End: when the President signs a law (CR or full‑year appropriations) that restores funding to all agencies affected by the lapse. Mainstream media (NYT, WSJ, WaPo) best estimates of this time will be used.
Counting: duration is the number of calendar midnights (ET) that pass while the shutdown is in effect. A lapse that starts and ends on the same calendar day counts as 0 days; any day with any portion under shutdown counts toward the total.
Background
A shutdown occurs when annual or interim appropriations lapse; under the Antideficiency Act, most activities stop except those authorized by law (e.g., protection of life/property). The longest prior shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019); others include 16 days (Oct 2013) and brief lapses in Jan/Feb 2018. (congress.gov)
As of Oct 1, 2025, agencies have been preparing for a potential lapse; e.g., HHS and FAA detailed expected furloughs and excepted operations if funding expires. These preparations indicate heightened shutdown risk at the FY2026 start. (reuters.com)
Considerations
Partial shutdowns are possible if some agencies are pre‑funded; this market measures from the onset of the lapse until all initially unfunded agencies are covered by an enacted CR/appropriations law.
OMB posts agency contingency plans that clarify which functions continue during a lapse; these are useful for confirming implementation timing. (whitehouse.gov)
Time zone is Eastern Time for start/end and day counting; newswires may report local times—use ET when categorizing duration.
Update 2025-10-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bucket boundaries and exact ties
Durations strictly below a boundary resolve to the lower bucket; strictly above resolve to the higher bucket. Example: 4d 23h 59m -> 2-5; 5d 1m -> 5-10.
If the duration is exactly on a bucket boundary (e.g., exactly 5, 10, 15 days), both adjacent buckets will resolve at 50% each.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Agency defunding clarification: If a new funding agreement is widely considered the end of the shutdown, it will count as the shutdown end date even if some agency is no longer receiving funding under the new agreement (as long as it isn't a Trump scheme to divert funds). The "all agencies" language is meant to prevent ambiguity when two separate bills are passed to fund different agencies in tranches—in that case, the shutdown ends at the later date when all initially affected agencies are funded.
Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date is not fixed: The creator will extend the close date as long as the shutdown lasts to allow continued trading throughout the shutdown period.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calendar date mapping added: The creator has added calendar dates to each duration bucket option to show which dates correspond to which buckets (e.g., "0-2 days (October 1-3)").
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36,721 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13,700 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7,352 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7,330 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6,385 |
People are also trading
@AlanMurphy The idea, to my knowledge, is that they got Republicans to own the healthcare thing.
@b575 Republicans already owned it. Trump's BBB canceled those insurance subsidies. Democrats are just throwing Hail Mary passes to keep reminding Americans that MAGA Republicans are the reason their insurance subsidies are going up at the end of this year. If Republicans keep putting off a debate and vote on those subsidies, it will just add fuel to the fire. If they don't put it off, some Republicans might actually vote for it.
@becauseyoudo That is true, but the point was that many people would not notice it until premiums actually rose, which was scheduled for 1st of November.
@Quroe yea im ngl i knew democrats liked folding but i didnt expect them to just do this shit a second time, especially after (seemingly) finding a spine
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/11/09/congress/schumer-no-on-shutdown-deal-Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer emerged from an evening caucus meeting telling reporters, “I’m voting no” on the new shutdown deal, as he walked on the Senate floor.
Asked whether he’d slow-walk final passage, Schumer said: “Ask Rand Paul.”
@JeromeHPowell I'm seeing this article:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/09/government-funding-deal-on-track-to-advance-sunday-night-00644110
It looks like a poor rephrasing of the things from the past 2-3 hours about some republicans being in "talks" with democrats, and promising things like votes later.
I don't think that article actually has data on a deal, they're just reposting known information in a misleading way.
The senate is still in recess for another 30 min.
Anyone want to talk about what's making this change so much? Are people believing the anonymous source that dems are caving? Why won't any democrats say publicly that they're caving (is it just to prevent retaliation by the democratic group? But if they vote that way, how are they gonna not get the retaliation...)
Or is there something else causing this?
I'm seeing the senate is in recession until 6:00 tonight.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-senate-meets-for-weekend-session-as-government-shutdown-reaches-40th-day
Makes me sick to the stomach to see radical democrats and radical republicans ganging up together to be making the hungry people in our country. The people with no pay. The prices increase! Maybe the Mamdami wave will sweep the midterms so America can be the FREE country again for WE the people of the GREATER country in the world!!!
@Quroe there's some reporting of optimisism among senators, votes this week (source):
"I think there’s a possibility we could do it tomorrow night ... but more than likely Thursday," said Mullin, who regularly speaks with President Donald Trump, Democrats and his former House colleagues. Centrist Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, who has taken part in some of the bipartisan talks on how to get the government reopened, agreed, repeatedly saying he’s “optimistic” the shutdown could end this week.
both poly and kalshi also have it higher
