Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?
81
1.6kṀ42kresolved Jun 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15148/virgin-galactic-commercial-flight-q1-q2-2023/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ850 | |
| 2 | Ṁ281 | |
| 3 | Ṁ274 | |
| 4 | Ṁ272 | |
| 5 | Ṁ266 |
People are also trading
How many commercial suborbital flights will Virgin Galactic perform before 2030 or a major failure?
Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?
47% chance
When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km?
Will there be a successful test of a hypersonic commercial air travel system before 2030?
61% chance
Will there be a commercially available eVTOL before Jan 1st 2028?
81% chance
Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?
20% chance
Will Starship point-to-point fly commercial customers before 2030?
9% chance
Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?
23% chance
Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030
12% chance
Sort by:
predictedYES
Live stream on space.com will begin at 11 a.m. EDT (1600 GMT, or 9 a.m. local time in New Mexico) on June 29.
@Daniel_MC Definitely fees like the manifold public is quite down on the likelihood of success on the 29th 😬
@JoshuaWilkes I think the low % here is because of the definition for success. I don’t want to deal with a NO resolution because the ship gets scratched, someone sprains a finger, or they don’t reach the exact height specified
People are also trading
Related questions
How many commercial suborbital flights will Virgin Galactic perform before 2030 or a major failure?
Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?
47% chance
When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km?
Will there be a successful test of a hypersonic commercial air travel system before 2030?
61% chance
Will there be a commercially available eVTOL before Jan 1st 2028?
81% chance
Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?
20% chance
Will Starship point-to-point fly commercial customers before 2030?
9% chance
Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?
23% chance
Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030
12% chance