How many commercial suborbital flights will Virgin Galactic perform before 2030 or a major failure?

1kṀ1700

2029

0-4

27%

5-9

10%

10-15

16-25

26-35

36-49

20%

50-100

16%

101+

The first one is planned for tomorrow:

https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/26/23774134/virgin-galactic-01-mission-crewed-commercial-spaceflight

Major failure is any loss of life, unplanned destruction of the craft or significant collateral damage.

Only flights above 50km with paying customers count.

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"Above 50km" - do you mean if a plane exploded at 35km above earth, it wouldn't be counted here?

@ElliotDavies that's for the result, for ending the streak it does count

@CodeandSolderJust to check, if for whatever reason a flight doesn't go above 50km but there is no loss of life, loss of craft or collateral destruction, that flight wouldn't cause this market to end but also wouldn't count towards the total number of flights?

@JoshuaWilkes correct

Define collateral damage?

@ElliotDavies actually I cannot think of any obvious way to cause it without causing one of the other two, but in general destroying a significant amount of other people's stuff by accident in relation to their operations