Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
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See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14899/1000-deaths-from-israeliran-conflict/
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.
If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as Ambiguous
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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