In "How Does OpenAI Survive?" (https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/ ), Ed Zitron predicts:
For OpenAI to continue operating, things have to change dramatically.
In the event that OpenAI is making the highest-end of their reported revenue range — $4.5 billion — and it has that much in the bank as we speak, it will have to raise at least $2 billion, or as much as $10 billion, within the next 12 months.
In the event that it hasless than a billion in the bank, OpenAI will likely have to raise $5 billion, and do so in the next three to six months.
Otherwise, OpenAI will either have to at least halve their operating costs, all while maintaining the current pace of revenue, or find a way to literally double its revenue while keeping costs at the same rate. Even then, these numbers are extremely concerning — though I add there are always things that I don't know as OpenAI is a private company, and thus isn’t subject to the same disclosure rules as publicly-traded companies.
This market tries to judge the dependencies outlined by Ed Zitron, especially the second bullet point. Full definitions:
"Survive and no crash*" means that the company will remain mostly independent, not go bankrupt and keep at least 20% of its $80 billion valuation as reported earlier this year (i.e. keep valuation above $16 billion).
"Raise >= $5 billion" means that it will secure at least $5 billion in additional funding, regardless whether it is venture capital, debt financing or other sources. Should the money come with significant strings attached or weird forms (e.g. in the form of Azure cloud credits), I reserve the option to discount its value by up to 25%. The source will primarily be official statements by the companies involved, but if significant doubt about the value of the deal is raised in reputable business news coverage, I will take that into account and reduce the amount.
In case of any of the event being reported before close date, I'll allow for at least a week for discussion and generally for dust to settle to see if there is outstanding uncertainty. If substantial uncertainty remains, I may extend the discussion period. If no qualifying event is reported by close date (31st Jan 2025, inclusive), this market resolves to "Raise less than $5 billion, survive/no crash"
I will not trade on this market
1,000
3.00OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in a massive funding round that values the startup at $157 billion
How do you plan to resolve in situations of incomplete information? I.e. we will most likely not know the exact terms of any equity sale. How will you judge if the valuation is 16b+? If there is unclear information, or only rumors from newspapers are available, will this market remain indefinitely open?
Good question. I find the scenario somewhat unlikely - the thresholds are setup such that they IMHO really require quite a spectacular collapse. In the unlikely case that there is some sort of crash AND there is reasonable doubt whether the resulting valuation is above or below $16 billion AND no new information surfaces in a month or so, I'll propose to resolve probabilistically and (as in other cases) discuss the reasoning behind the specific probability chosen.