24. Will >66% US population be fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID by the end of 2022?
33
202Ṁ1525resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ62 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ8 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Sort by:
According to the latest CDC data, US second shot rate is now 66.0% as of 4/16/2022:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total
(Look at the Fully Vaccinated tab)
Can we resolve this market now?
According to Our World In Data, we're at 63% now and were at 60% around Dec 1st -- so a 3% gain in 2 months. The next 3% gain would have to take 5x longer for this to be false
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
Related questions
Related questions
Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025?
31% chance
Will the US distribute a broadly available vaccine for the 2025-26 flu season by November 1, 2025?
68% chance
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?
51% chance
Will there be an Opioid Vaccine available by the end of 2026?
7% chance
In 2030 will long-lasting side effects in over 30% of the US be linked to the Moderna AND Pfizer COVID vaccinations?
3% chance
Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?
8% chance
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
67% chance