24. Will >66% US population be fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID by the end of 2022?
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From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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According to the latest CDC data, US second shot rate is now 66.0% as of 4/16/2022:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total
(Look at the Fully Vaccinated tab)
Can we resolve this market now?
According to Our World In Data, we're at 63% now and were at 60% around Dec 1st -- so a 3% gain in 2 months. The next 3% gain would have to take 5x longer for this to be false
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
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