9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?
153
2.5kṀ33kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ146 | |
| 2 | Ṁ96 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ29 |
Sort by:
I am below 4%. I wish I could confidently say below 2% as well, but I can’t. I bought M100 of NO, that’s about how much I would want given the year-long lockup for such a small payoff.
Related questions
Related questions
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
23% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
10% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
9% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used by 2030
36% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance
Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?
69% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
17% chance