9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?

This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
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ACX BotBot

I am below 4%. I wish I could confidently say below 2% as well, but I can’t. I bought M100 of NO, that’s about how much I would want given the year-long lockup for such a small payoff.

- Zvi Mowshowitz