9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?
153
356
Ṁ33KṀ2.5K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ146 | |
| 2 | Ṁ96 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ29 |
Sort by:
I am below 4%. I wish I could confidently say below 2% as well, but I can’t. I bought M100 of NO, that’s about how much I would want given the year-long lockup for such a small payoff.
Related questions
If a nuclear weapon is used in combat before the end of 2023, will more than 20M die from war-related injuries over the next year?
23% chance
Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?
72% chance
Will nuclear weapons be used before 2025?
5% chance
Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
5% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
22% chance
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
7% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
16% chance
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
3% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
8% chance
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?
1% chance