ACX BotBot
closes Dec 31
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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ACX BotBot
I am below 4%. I wish I could confidently say below 2% as well, but I can’t. I bought M100 of NO, that’s about how much I would want given the year-long lockup for such a small payoff.
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YES payouts
Ṁ1,017
Ṁ699
Ṁ364
Ṁ364
Ṁ321
Ṁ250
Ṁ243
Ṁ235
Ṁ230
Ṁ207
Ṁ198
Ṁ183
Ṁ172
Ṁ162
Ṁ108
Ṁ103
Ṁ72
Ṁ52
NO payouts
Ṁ1,660
Ṁ1,043
Ṁ524
Ṁ369
Ṁ322
Ṁ212
Ṁ210
Ṁ146
Ṁ106
Ṁ105
Ṁ105
Ṁ105
Ṁ104
Ṁ99
Ṁ83
Ṁ78
Ṁ76
Ṁ62
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