9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?
Plus
153
Ṁ33kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I am below 4%. I wish I could confidently say below 2% as well, but I can’t. I bought M100 of NO, that’s about how much I would want given the year-long lockup for such a small payoff.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?
69% chance
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
27% chance
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
5% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
15% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
9% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
22% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance