As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.
This is question #6 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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@BTE yeah, that part is clear, i safely assume it will be damaged another multiple times this year, however, a complete destruction of both the road bridge and the rail bridge (to an extent that it can't be fixed by 1/1/24) is the hard to believe part.
this market only requires the bridge to be out for 2 days:
https://manifold.markets/Aurelius/will-the-kerch-strait-bridge-bridge
@nickten yeah, still my view, but this is a question where I won't be upset if I lose $2100M. Rail bridge is much higher and would be hard to get with naval drones (or just about anything)
An I missing something with the arbitrage opportunity here, Do people just give a very strong probability to it being repaired or it it something else?
https://manifold.markets/Aurelius/will-the-kerch-strait-bridge-bridge
@CameronHolmes it has happened once already during the war, right?
I guess damaging something to the point of inoperability is much easier than destroying it for good, unless you have control over the area.
@CameronHolmes I think I personally caused most of the recent movement in that other market, and I did so while not being aware of this one. But yes, I do put a significant probability on it being repaired if it is put out of order (repaired enough for some vehicles to be able to cross).
Also, even if the bridge is put permanently out of order, the other market will resolve faster than this one. So this market gives lower "interest payments" (insofar as the market resolves in my favor that is).
Also, it sometimes plays into my thinking that if I move a market erratically, then maybe this can work as "bait" for more people to join in, or for existing traders to pay attention to it again (so that the market gets more liquidity) 🙃 I don't have a cogent strategy relating to that, but it does play into my thinking sometimes.
@Fion my understanding is that the previous damage was insufficient to satisfy that market as it was still partly navigable? (I could be wrong on that though)
I agree with your point generally though.
my understanding is that the previous damage was insufficient to satisfy that market as it was still partly navigable?
That's correct, I think (for either market).
The way I understand it (I'm not totally sure):
- The bridge was hit in early October
- All traffic of any vehicle (car or train) was stopped for some hours, but some car traffic resumed later that same day.
- Two-way car-traffic was restored early December.
- Car-traffick was no longer significantly affected in late February (this year).
- Rail-traffick was restored in early May (this year).
@BTE The fighting is unlikely to happen in Crimea this year. The war is going to be longer than people on Manifold seem to imagine.
@Thunderstar The counteroffensive will start in the coming weeks, but the fighting in Crimea is unlikely to happen.
This war is slow and gruesome.
I don't know why this is so low. According to the new aid package going to Ukraine as well as a thread about them (https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1628197190320488455) and their capabilities, it seems pretty likely as this is a high target for Ukraine. As for the repairs, this bridge was built with European technology and I don't see a possibility of it being repaired successfully by Russians anytime soon (Pre cast concrete: https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795416064106498).
@Thunderstar The powered JDAM is maybe barely in range, but as mentioned below, a 500lb bomb isn't going to destroy the Kerch bridge.
@AlQuinn enough of then will. These are precision seeking bombs, not just randomly placed. Destroying this bridge and it's transportation capabilities is crucial for Ukraine winning the war.
@Thunderstar lol, okay, so almost 100 500lb JDAMs will equal one truck bomb. Maybe Ukraine manages to successfully launch 100 JDAMs and strike the bridge, surgically severing it, but on the other hand, this isn't a Tom Cruise movie.
@AlQuinn Ukrainians can launch other types of bombs from the Himar as well. Ukraine is also working on suicide drones as well (https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581975400615329793). I'm being realistic here.
@Thunderstar I would stay off the twitter if I were you; rots the brain. But 75kg suicide drones aren't going to collapse a bridge. But if you think so, why not buy more YES -- maybe to 40+%?
@AlQuinn lack of funds, simple as 😂. A lot of the articles I've read are just rehashing from Twitter anyways.