Resolves to YES if at any time in 2023 the Kerch Strait Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than two days. Planned maintenance does not count.
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@chrisjbillington https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66484640
Three missiles, allegedly all shot down, at same time as 20 sent at Crimea, may have been to just draw aa fire.
Bridge closed to traffic for an hour.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/17/world/russia-ukraine-news
A predawn assault on a critical bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia forced the temporary closure on Monday of a main artery used by its military to support its troops in southern Ukraine, in yet another blow to a Russian military command that was already dealing with internal strife.
There seems to still be rail traffic: https://twitter.com/rusashanews/status/1680827514711670784/video/1. I guess time will show how long that lasts.
@NathanpmYoung Cool that you made a model :)
Some thoughts I have:
- You mention a push towards Crimea in the model, and a "show of force" (which I interpret as "symbolic effect"). But I think another important motivation could be to disrupt logistics (it's not only Crimea that is supplied with the help of this bridge).
- How long-range missiles need to be in order to reach the bridge may change over time (if/when they take back more land in the south).
Missiles are one method of trying to destroy the bridge. Another method has been seen earlier (exploding truck that got past security). We could also imagine:
- Drones (that overwhelm air defenses)
- Underwater drones
- Boat-drones
- Special forces that plant charges directly on the bridge
- Special forces that overwhelm/kill security, and drive over one or more exploding trucks
- Special forces that take over air defense nearby (and shoot it at the bridge)
- Air raids by jets
- Exploding devices sneaked in on trains that carry fuel/ammunition
Maybe some or all of these are unrealistic, I dunno. But conditional on the bridge being made inoperable, I put significant probability-weight of some other method being used instead of (or in addition to) missiles.
My thinking is also affected by statements from officials on the Ukrainian side.
Here, for example, is a tweet from their Ministry Of Defense (from before the first hit on the bridge): https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840. So it seems they put some importance on that bridge.
A statement made by Oleksiy Arestovych recently: "We will demolish the Crimean bridge. All this is possible under certain conditions, we are currently arranging the conditions". I remember him also repeatedly talking about the bridge in such terms (saying it would be destroyed) months prior to the first hit on the bridge.
So my impression is that they do put some importance on disrupting that bridge / making it inoperable.
@NathanpmYoung I like the model. The bridge has anti-missile defense - curious how you've taken that into account?
@PeterWildeford Anything that send obviously wrong? I'm not sure how many missiles they'd try. Or if the UK has placed stipulations.
How good do you think the defences are.
@TorBarstad if Ukraine hold 700 missiles, I don't accept they would commit all 700 to bridge destruction.
Neat model idea though
@NathanpmYoung I think the "will all missiles miss" Q ignores that this is probably somewhat correlated. I don't think each missile firing is a fully independent event. I also agree with @CromlynGames that they wouldn't use anywhere close to all 700 missiles on the bridge.
I'm changing my mind and thinking that while there are obviously clear stipulations to not attack sovereign Russia territory and while I imagine the UK would be leery of much targeting in Crimea, I think attacking the Bridge could be fair game.
I'm pretty unsure and out of my depth when thinking about how Storm Shadow missiles would do against the Bridge's anti-missile defense. It's very clear the Storm Shadow missiles could reach Kerch Bridge just fine. And Storm Shadow missiles are apparently quite good for hitting stationary targets with a lot of explosive force and have some good counter-countermeasures.
while there are obviously clear stipulations to not attack sovereign Russia territory and while I imagine the UK would be leery of much targeting in Crimea, I think attacking the Bridge could be fair game
As I understand it, the UK is ok with strikes on Ukrainian territories, and considers Crimea to be part of Ukrainian territories (but this is my impression of things - I'm not aware of e.g. a quote from some UK official that I could refer you to).
Whereas the Kerch Strait Bridge is concerned, large parts of it fall under the Ukrainian 1991 borders.
@TorBarstad Yeah this is my understanding of the situation as well, though heavy attacks on Crimea do seem to invite more risk of Russian retaliation that I'm sure UK/NATO will want to thoughtfully manage.
@NathanpmYoung It's a very nice model. I think it's 100% that Ukraine wants to hit the bridge, and that they will also try. I think the UK would probably not be super happy if Ukraine uses the Storm Shadows on the bridge the week after they are given, however. Also, I tend to think Russia might be able to intercept them at the bridge, with all their air defense but might not. I could see a case where only the rail bridge is hit, kind of like last time. It's actually a puzzle to me why the bridge is still standing. But, the fact it is still standing suggests it's not so easy to hit by air-defense or another means. For all we know, Ukraine has tried to hit it more than once, only unsuccessfully. In any case, I'm going to bump the odds up from 33% here.
@NathanpmYoung Interesting :)
At first I thought you might be using https://www.getguesstimate.com/.