45. Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour at the end of 2023?
24%
chance

Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positive if it looks like he could take the trip with less than one hour of figuring out how and less than $500 cost. Currently (late 2022) he estimates he cannot do this, because the self-driving taxis in SF only operate at night and won’t cross the bridge into Oakland.

This is question #45 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.