closes Dec 31
44. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023?

An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, or that modify the visual field with filters. The new visual information must be in some way based on what the user is doing or seeing. Microsoft Hololens would qualify, but is already extant. Must be released by one of Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon specifically, and must be available for purchase by the public in some capacity.

This is question #44 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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ACXBot avatar
ACX BotBot

Augmented reality has been a next big thing for a while now. It is not an easy thing to do right, and it also is not about to be the new hotness unless it is integrated with AI, which I am guessing will take longer than a year to be ready to launch, and could cause a postponement. I bought M50 of NO here, but there wasn’t much liquidity and I haven’t done the research, so my fair here is still in the 50s somewhere. It does seem like a thing people mean to be doing.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ200 of YES

With the current plan, Apple could introduce the device to consumers — likely under the name Reality Pro — and then get developers up to speed on its software features in June. On this timeline, the company would then ship the product later in the fall of 2023. 

FabienLeGuillarm avatar
Fabien Le Guillarmis predicting YES at 69%

I'm curious to know the specifics.

Does it has to be a see-through device (like a hololens), or can a pass-through device (MR) validate this question?
This can affect the result, as Apple is rumored to release an MR device, whereas the Apple Glasses (that might qualify if more than just AR overlay) are less probable in 2023.

FabienLeGuillarm avatar
Fabien Le Guillarmis predicting YES at 85%

Adding to my comment: Apple AR Glasses - that would probably not qualify for this - are «indefinitely delayed.»

Pandurevich avatar
Srđan Pandurevićbought Ṁ100 of YES

@FabienLeGuillarm Did you read that link? The talk is about a cheaper version, whereas the more expensive one is still slated for 2023

FabienLeGuillarm avatar
Fabien Le Guillarmis predicting YES at 82%

@Pandurevich Yes, indeed; my comment was about the exact definition of AR. It is often unclear in the industry. If I understand correctly, «where the user can see through it» means a transparent screen (like the Hololens). It seems that the more expensive Apple headset will be an MR device, and the definition would be more like «where the user can't see through it directly but can see the outside world from the external cameras».
Because of this, I'm currently considering updating my bet to NO, as Meta is probably focused on the Quest and rumors are quite inexistent for Google and Amazon. Still thinking about it.

Pandurevich avatar
Srđan Pandurevićis predicting YES at 75%

@FabienLeGuillarm Makes sense. Reading the description again, and reading your comment, I'm changing my bet to NO