Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/24; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.
This is question #38 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
1,000
3.00Related:
https://manifold.markets/DrewVolpe/will-x-fka-twitter-integrate-crypto
Metaculus' equivalent market is unfazed by Tesla's addition, still at 12% over there vs. 44% here. Free internet points for someone!
Tesla currently accepts DOGE in its store. Should resolve YES.
@Denial The question's description states:
This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/24
That is to say, it doesn't matter if they accept crypto now, only if the accept it (or plan to accept it) on January first.
@Denial This clearly should resolve YES. The link is basically "how to" for using Doge to buy things from Tesla. It shouldn't matter what you can buy with it, all that matters is you can use it to buy something.
@BTE It matters whether it's an experimental or gimmick service.
one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token
@BTE The only thing I can find for sale from Tesla for DOGE is the “cyberwhistle”, which is out of stock. Not even their other “shop” items, let alone actually buying a car. I think that puts it firmly in the “gimmick service” category.
@Gabrielle Probably won't matter when they start taking bitcoin for cars again soon https://electrek.co/2023/07/20/tesla-appears-ready-take-bitcoin-payments-again/#:~:text=Tesla%20has%20suspended%20vehicle%20purchases,worst%20emissions%20of%20any%20fuel.
@Gabrielle I still think being able to use Twitter to send crypto to other users should resolve this YES. Musk added that feature months ago.
@jack in general I agree, but not sure how this would resolve if they take transaction fees in crypto. (As discussed in thread below twitter does not actually handle the transactions at all currently, this is only hypothetical)
@BTE "The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token" -- I don't think that Scott will count this as the company taking payment in crypto.
@jcb In that case it should say “can you buy a Tesla with bitcoin”. Stupid question if not resolved by this.
@jcb Twitter was entirely FREE until recently. Get out of here with the gimmick BS. This is their ONLY PRODUCT!!
@jcb I don’t think it could be more clear that you are reaching hard for a leg to stand on.
@Zardoru Um no, that is the pre Musk Twitter you are thinking of. Advertisers are gone. Not coming back.
@Zardoru The ad business is irrelevant to this question obviously. We are talking about transactions in crypto. Can you make an argument that is not happening?? I think not. Is it new?? Indeed.
@BTE I'm really confused about what you're saying here. If it were possible to pay for Twitter Blue with crypto I think that would obviously lead to a YES resolution. Tips seems to just be a suggested way for Twitter users to send each other money via completely off-platform channels. That's not in the same ballpark; it doesn't even come close to either the spirit or letter of this question. Am I missing something? Are you talking about some completely different feature?
@jcb Musk has been saying Twitter is X now. Did you miss that?? How much crypto transaction would it take for their to be crypto on Twitter that is real?? You are basically arguing Twitter is only an ad business and again you are many months behind.
@BTE I'm not sure how this would resolve if Twitter bought Venmo. The question is phrased in terms of purchasing a product with crypto, and Venmo users don't really purchase goods or services from Venmo. If Venmo takes transaction fees maybe that would count as YES? I don't feel confident predicting how Scott would judge that situation.
@BTE "Research firm Insider Intelligence this week slashed its forecast for Twitter's global ad revenue this year by 37% to $2.98 billion." https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitters-advertising-business-seen-facing-slow-recovery-2023-04-13/
If you can pay a $500K twitter campaign in crypto, that would mean the market can resolve yes. Anyway Scott will be the judge, so lobbying here is pointless.
@Zardoru That would make exactly zero sense since nobody would quote you in crypto. The ONLY thing that makes sense for this question is small consumer transactions.
@BTE Musk has mixed track record in terms of words meaning things. If X begins actually processing crypto transfers between Twitter users then I could see a case for this to resolve YES, though again it's not clear to me what Scott would decide. Currently as far as I can tell this is a way for Twitter users to (a) attach an external payment destination to their profile (bitcoin address, Venmo handle, etc) and (b) easily access an external payment platform to send a payment to another user. That seems, as I said before, very far from Twitter accepting crypto as a payment.