38. Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023?
42%
chance

Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/24; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.

This is question #38 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥is predicting NO at 53%
BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 37%

Twitter is going to enable users to buy ShibaInu and other crypto tokens soon according to some sources.

yaboi69 avatar
yaboi69is predicting NO at 54%

@BTE Tracking back these claims and cutting through empty guesswork, we get to this: “According to tech blogger Jane Manchun Wong, Twitter’s coin purchasing program will be powered by payment giant Stripe.” Genuine question: does Stripe imply payment with crypto? After a minute of lazily looking, I can only find that it enables sending money to exchanges, which is a different thing.

BTE avatar
BTEbought Ṁ250 of YES

Microsoft should really be included too. FAANG has actually been FAAMG for at least the last year.

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 31%
Mira avatar
Mirais predicting NO at 31%

@BTE That document isn't dated. I recall Tesla stopped accepting cryptocurrencies a couple years back, and I don't know if they resumed.

Elon Musk at one point said he wouldn't hedge his position with futures, which sounds pretty dangerous depending on how long they have to hold payment for. (And it would also be dangerous to hedge)

I'd be surprised if they could safely accept payment in Bitcoin, if it's not immediately cashed to USD.

BTE avatar
BTEbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Mira You are correct. Tesla only accepts dogecoin now. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60001144

Mira avatar
Mirais predicting NO at 45%

@BTE "Items eligible for purchase include Tesla-branded belt buckles (835 Doge or about $162; £118) and children's all-terrain vehicles (12020 Doge or about $2,280; £1,670), which are currently sold out."

This market says that "experimental or gimmick services" don't count, it has to be one of its major services. Tesla used to sell cars for Bitcoin, for example; but belt buckles shouldn't count...

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonis predicting NO at 16%

@Mira Yup. Right now it looks like the cyberwhistle is the only merch on the site procurable in Doge, and it’s out of stock: https://shop.tesla.com/product/cyberwhistle?sku=1715672-00-A&web=true

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 27%

@MattCWilson I see no reason why Musk won't start taking Dogecoin from Blue subscribers. He could do it impulsively. That would not be a gimmick and should qualify as a YES resolution.

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonis predicting NO at 37%

@BTE 🤷‍♂️ Musk strikes me as meme-friendly enough to even have a DOGE-denominated product in the first place, but not so profit-disinterested that he’d spring for something economically speculative, especially not while Tesla profits are under scrutiny

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 40%

@MattCWilson They already take dogecoin for some accessories at Tesla. It’s not a huge risk to accept $8/month in doge instead of dollars.

Duncan avatar
Duncanbought Ṁ15 of YES

@MattCWilson But that means he's well positioned to consider USDC, for example, as a viable payment option.

wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime

@MattCWilson ah ok then I would say as of today it wouldn't resolve to yes.

wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime

Slightly confused. Doesn't Tesla already accept Dogecoin?

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting YES at 31%

@wilsonkime Bitcoin too