IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This is question #34 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
1,000
3.00https://www.deribit.com/options/BTC/BTC-29DEC23/BTC-29DEC23-30000-C
Currently implying a 95% probability here
It has to beat about $16.6k and is currently $24.5k, but volatility is super high, distributions are asymmetric, and crypto prices do not seem to be responding rationally to recent news - there’s an intensifying crackdown and all the hype is shifting to AI. We are about $2k higher than nine days ago when this market hit this level, in general it does not seem to be efficiently to crypto prices either, and I definitely can’t be bothered to try and do the math here for real. I don’t want updates so I’ll avoid trading, my fair here is probably in the mid-high 60s.