167
733
2K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

IE will it end the year higher than it began?

This is question #34 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ692
2Ṁ605
3Ṁ420
4Ṁ308
5Ṁ281
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Bitcoin's value, a mystery to all,
Will it rise or will it fall?
Predicting the future, a daunting task,
But I believe Bitcoin will surpass.

predicted YES

Related

It has to beat about $16.6k and is currently $24.5k, but volatility is super high, distributions are asymmetric, and crypto prices do not seem to be responding rationally to recent news - there’s an intensifying crackdown and all the hype is shifting to AI. We are about $2k higher than nine days ago when this market hit this level, in general it does not seem to be efficiently to crypto prices either, and I definitely can’t be bothered to try and do the math here for real. I don’t want updates so I’ll avoid trading, my fair here is probably in the mid-high 60s.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

Bitcoin at $16550, so this is what it will have to beat.