39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?
122
807
2k
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
YES

This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (researchers, corporate partners, people who want to play around with it, etc). A product is “GPT-4” if it is either named GPT-4, or is a clear successor to GPT-3 to a degree similar to how GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2 (and not branded as a newer version of GPT-3, eg ChatGPT3).

This is question #39 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

This can resolve YES.

Why would they go back on their word here? A little trouble with A Good Bing? Let us be clear, no matter what OpenAI and its employees say they do not care about such considerations, and they do not care about AI Not-Kill-Everyoneism. Nor does Microsoft. They are releasing this. I bought M500 of YES to get this to 91%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

predicted YES

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predicted NO

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