🏅 Top traders

Thanks for the last minute mana folks. Goodnight. :)

i figured there was a >10% chance you'd be busy and forget

the admins would resolve it, but it'd be hilarious if trong didn't resolve the market to keep your mana locked away from the whale market

@IsaacKing O-O woah

Gonna be a fun day.

Well, I'm betting No and my calibration is inverse very good, so this'll probably resolve yes.

@NickAllen i wanna learn how to actually improve calibration. I mean yeah this account is F'd but i wanna make a new one and start over!

@Dreamingpast I'm guessing they'll keep improving the calibration; one obvious one they mentioned in the discord server is dropping off older measurements, or weighting them lower

@NickAllen too strong that inverse calibration of yours

@firstuserhere yeah I'm like the manifold Cramer.

https://manifold.markets/8/this-market-resolves-as-yes-if-some

There's currently about ᛗ262 that can be won by any whale who decides to pick this up. That's about a 0.13% interest rate. I don't predict any of them will find it worth it to take that until a very short time before close -- likely no more than a day, probably.

The current cost of buying 200k shares is around Ṁ19,500,000 lol

@LucasGoldfein56b1 bro where are you getting thiis

it's 1000 mana per share once it gets to 99.9 which it takes around 5k shares for rn

@LucasGoldfein56b1 am i being dumb or can you buy 200k shares with <200k Mana?

@LucasGoldfein56b1 That's not how it works - at worst, one share costs one mana (and it will never cost quite that), since a share always redeems for at most one mana.

So at worst, someone with M$200k can make this resolve by going all in on YES. And there are users with that much (two people have put roughly that much into https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi#bQus1SFdcXW7tOD9Ikcz, and after it resolves one of them will have that much)

@Gabrielle Oh! interesting

Does a single person even have a balance of 200k right now?

@LucasGoldfein56b1 several, plus loans exist

This can only happen if there is opposition and the yes better gets liquidity.

Even with 200k mana, one cannot get 200k shares unopposed, because it will quickly go to 99.9% and you have to spend 1000 mana per additional share.

Only if people go crazy and start betting huge amounts on no can anyone accumulate 200k yes. So NO better can trivially win by simply not betting much.

@AlexRockwell Actually 1 full share is the lower bound of what you can buy for 1 mana. at 50% it is 2 shares for 1 mana. at 99.9% it would be 1.001 shares for 1 mana. at 1% it is 100 shares for 1 mana. You would need to spend around 1000 mana before it would reflect that you get a whole extra share (i.e. 1001 shares for 1000 mana). But I do think that if the market runs out of liquidity it wont even be able to cover that 0.001 excess share per mana invested at which point you wont be able to purchase any more shares.

@ShitakiIntaki Yes, at a certain point it'll return an "insufficient liquidity" error. (The UI appears to just bug out, but you can see it in the API.) But for a market of this size I think that would require several million mana at a minimum.