Will a Chinese AI lab deliver another breakthrough that significantly exceeds global market expectations before December 2026?
This market resolves YES if a newly released Chinese AI model meets BOTH conditions:
Frontier-level performance: Matches or exceeds the highest-scoring non-Chinese model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the time of evaluation.
Major cost advantage: Offers at least 50% lower API cost per Intelligence Index task than that leading non-Chinese model.
Eligible developers include DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM, MiniMax, ByteDance, and other Chinese AI labs.
Only publicly released models between November 5 and November 30, 2026, qualify.
Private previews, unverified benchmarks, and marketing claims do not count.
The market resolves NO if no qualifying model meets both conditions by November 30, 2026.
Resolution source: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models
Deadline: November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.
1,000Market was at 37% when I bet; I've got it near 5%. YES needs a Chinese model to tie or beat the top of the Artificial Analysis index by Nov 30. Gemini 4 Carbon leads at 60 right now, and the best Chinese entry I could find is far behind. That's a lot of ground in 3 weeks. https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models